The Housing Ratchet: Endgame

1. The State Creates Artificial Scarcity

Through deliberate regulatory overload:

• Impact fees ($50k–$150k per unit)
• CEQA/SEPA delays (years of carrying costs)
• Prevailing wage
• Parking mandates
• Energy codes
• Design review
• "Best available science" reports
• VMT mitigation
• Mandated high-density (two stairs, hallways, elevators, full sprinklers, seismic upgrades, highest fees, "public transit contributions") — making per-sq-ft costs 2–3× single-family despite "efficiency" claims.

New affordable homes become mathematically impossible (2–4× build costs vs. low-regulation states).

2. Shortage Explodes Prices → "Affordability Crisis"

State declares emergency.

3. "Solutions" Punish Victims

• Inclusionary Zoning taxes new market-rate units → small/mid-tier developers vanish → total supply falls → prices rise further.
• Anti-displacement rules grant subjective vetoes → viable projects blocked.
• VMT fees tax exurban living → geographic escape closed.

4. Final Assault on Last Harbor

Finished homes under legacy caps (e.g., Prop 13).

• Paper "upzones" to fantasy density inflate assessed land value → taxes on unrealized potential.
• Split-rate LVT manipulates land/improvement ratio + rate → effective confiscation (2–5× taxes) or forced sale.

5. Cycle Complete

Middle class stripped of every shelter:
No new affordable supply. No stable old ownership. No geographic relief.

The state manufactured the shortage.
Now it taxes citizens for the crime — and seizes the asset when they can't pay.

Goal never affordability.
Goal always extraction and control.

The ratchet only turns one way.